KARACHI: Total petroleum oil and lubricants (POL) sales were 2.16 million tonnes in September, down 14 per cent month-on-month and up 3pc year-on-year.
On a year-on-year basis, growth was pulled by Mogas (MS) and high speed diesel (HSD) sales, which exhibited a rise of 11pc and 8pc, respectively whereas furnace oil (FO) sales showed a decline of 6pc. On a MoM basis, slowdown in POL sales was due to Eid holidays, says analyst Shahbaz Ashraf at Arif Habib Limited (AHL).
HSD, among major products, displayed the biggest drop of 19pc MoM to 0.67m tonnes in Sept17, followed by FO and MS, which depicted a reduction of 16pc and 7pc, respectively. However, on YoY basis, total sales recorded a decent growth of 3pc led by double digit incline in MS of 11pc YoY, followed by 8pc growth in HSD, he said.
However, FO had been a laggard attributable to its lower contribution in power generation amid growth in (RLNG). As of Aug 17, FO’s contribution in power mix stood at 25pc as compared to 29pc a year earlier, whereas RLNG contribution augmented to 11pc from 3pc in the prior year.
In the first quarter of 2018, HSD has been a leader, signalling a rise of 24pc, followed by MS at 16pc. Yet again, FO has been adversely impacting total oil sales, which dropped by 8pc to 2.55m tonnes in the said period.
Growth in HSD can be attributable to robust growth in large scale manufacturing, sales of trucks and buses, and lower prices. Likewise, the double digit upturn of 16pc YoY in Mogas in the first quarter is due to robust growth being witnessed in cars led by higher consumer financing in the wake of low interest rates.
Total market share of Pakistan State Oil stands at 59pc for the first quarter in the current fiscal year against 57pc in same price last year. This rise is attributable to higher market share in Mogas, HSD, and FO of 44pc, 50pc and 77pc compared to 39pc, 42pc and 75pc, respectively in the prior year.
Likewise Hascol – being the second largest player – is maintaining its momentum, garnering market share of 11pc (led by increasing MS in PMG and diesel, whereas FO market share is flattish) in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to 8pc last year.
Hascol has shown exponential growth overall, apparent from overall volumes exhibiting a growth of 50pc YoY in the first quarter, thus gaining additional share in both black and white oil products. Meanwhile, Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) has maintained its share of 8pc.
Meanwhile, the analyst noted that Shell was losing big time. Its market share dipped by 350bps, currently standing at 6pc led by all major products, he added.